Global mobile connections to hit 7.4bn in 2015 – Gartner
Mobile connections will reach 5.6 billion worldwide during 2011, according to Gartner, an 11% rise on last year's 5 billion connections. The analyst firm predicted on Thursday that this figure will reach 7.4 billion by 2015, which, depending on the growth of the world's population, could mean that on a global basis, mobile penetration will be more than 100%. Gartner also said it expects global mobile data revenue to show steady growth this year, topping $314.7 billion – a 22.5% increase from $257 billion in 2010. By 2015, the company expects mobile data revenue to hit $552 billion worldwide.
"Mobile data traffic will increase significantly as more people will have access to mobile data networks, there is a migration toward smartphones, and an increase in sales of media tablets," said Jessica Ekholm, principal research analyst at Gartner, in a research note. However, like many other industry observers, Ekholm also warned that mobile data revenue will grow at a much slower rate than mobile data traffic, and will inevitably put a strain on operators' finances.
In addition, Juniper Research earlier this week warned that the cost of delivering mobile data traffic could rise to $370 billion by 2016, due to the proliferation of connected devices, and the extra network capacity required to accommodate them all. While Juniper Research advised operators to save costs by offloading more data traffic from their macro mobile networks, Gartner urged players to work on generating more revenue from their data services by rolling out tier-pricing, and usage-based payment plans. "Carriers should focus on increasing the level of clarity and the transparency of their mobile data contracts in order to make the majority of customers feel more at ease in using data services," advised Ekholm. "Offering clients various ways of being able to track and monitor their data usage would help carriers receive a larger amount of revenue from more profitable lower-usage, medium-pay users," she said.
At the same time, Gartner called on operators to ensure they are able to manage the increase in data traffic in a way that does not risk degrading the user experience.
"Ultimately, it will be the consumer who chooses the content he or she wants to use, and carriers need to ensure that the quality of experience is good," said Gartner research director Sylvain Fabre. "A substandard user experience may lead to higher churn content he or she wants to use, and carriers need to ensure that the quality of experience is good," said Gartner research director Sylvain Fabre. "A substandard user experience may lead to higher churn”.
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